Derby, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

770
FXUS63 KICT 200417
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1117 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near seasonal temperatures for Thursday with a return to
  above normal readings for Friday through the weekend.

- While there will be small storm chances each night through
  most of the forecast, there still isn`t a good signal for high
  chances of more widespread rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

In the upper levels, currently have ridging centered over the Four
Corners/Desert Southwest region with troughing from Ontario down
through the Ohio Valley. Water vapor imagery shows a vort lobe
moving across northeast Nebraska. Very messy surface pattern in
place this afternoon. A couple outflow boundaries pushed through
southern KS into OK but didn`t have much of an affect on temps. It
appears the more synoptic front extends generally along Highway 50.

Morning storms dissipated as they pushed south this afternoon
and were related to the mid level baroclinic zone. Meanwhile,
complex of storms is tracking southeast across eastern NE and is
just ahead of the main vort lobe. This activity will continue
tracking southeast late this afternoon/evening, possibly
affecting parts of northeast KS. Outside of this activity, it
should be a fairly quite evening across the forecast area. The
better chances for storms on Thu look to be along the front,
which should be well north of the forecast area, over Nebraska.

Confidence in storm chances remain very low for Thu night. A couple
storms that develop over NE Thu afternoon may try and move into
northern KS Thu evening. There is also a slight chance that a few
storms develop later Thu night along mid level baroclinic zone as
the region also remains in a broad area of upper diffluence.
Even if these scenarios both pan out, the majority of the area
would still remain dry. For Fri, we will remain in northwest
flow aloft in a broad area of upper diffluence. This setup will
allow for small storm chances for mainly Fri night. For Sat into
Sun, upper ridge will sink slowly south into the Southern
Rockies and Southern Plains. While remaining in nw flow aloft may
continue to bring some small overnight storm chances, confidence
is very low on this panning out due to lack of decent upper
support.

As far as temps go, highs Thu will be near or slightly above normal
with a warm-up starting Fri and continuing through the start of next
week. However, there has been a trend lately of pushing the more
extreme heat further south, which would mainly impact the
southern portion of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end
of the period. Could see some low clouds and patchy fog across
central KS later this morning, though confidence in impacts at this
point is too low for a reduction in category at any site for this
issuance. Otherwise, look for mostly clear skies and light winds
over the next 24 hours, with speeds forecast under 10 kts.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JWK